It’s officially draft week! We’re just days away from the oddest draft in my lifetime. I’m pumped, not only because we haven’t had sports in five weeks, but also because I love the draft chaos.
We have four months of agonizing over mock drafts, which will only be ripped up within a few picks in the first round. As you prepare for this Thursday night, and the weekend ahead, here are my top storylines, ranked in order of intrigue.
Entering the 2019 season, Tagovailoa was the projected No. 1 draft pick, no doubt about it. His combination of arm talent, field processing, and ability to make something out of nothing are special. However, he injured his hip near the end of Alabama’s season. It was his third injury within a year, this being the worst of the three.
While it appears Tagovailoa is on track with his rehab, two people in the know have told me teams remain leery of drafting him without being able to recheck him themselves. When Justin Herbert goes ahead of Tagovailoa — which would have been completely batshit crazy in September (and still might be) — the hip is the reason why.
2. Which top-10 pick will be the shocker?
2019: Clelin Ferrell, Raiders; Daniel Jones, Giants
2018: Baker Mayfield, Browns
2017: Mitchell Trubisky, Bears
Every year, we see at least one player drafted in the top 10 who was taken higher than we expected. Which team could surprise us this year?
The Giants could be the pick at No. 4 to do something wild, but I don’t think they will. This is a class which has a strong top 11 players, and it would be tough for them to screw it up. The Giants will take either an offensive tackle or Clemson linebacker Isaiah Simmons.
The Lions at No. 3 could make a shocking selection, like selecting a defensive tackle — maybe Auburn’s Derrick Brown — which wouldn’t be too much of a stretch, but it’s clearly not a need. The Lions drafting a quarterback with the third pick would be a curveball, though. Matthew Stafford still has plenty in the tank, even coming off an injury.
The ultimate shocker would be a team trading up into the top 10 for Jordan Love, who’s the next quarterback in line after Joe Burrow, Tagovailoa, and Herbert. Or better yet, the Jacksonville Jaguars taking Love at No. 9. The Jaguars seem content rolling with Gardner Minshew, and they can secure their tackle of the future with the ninth pick.
Love is way too unproven to waste this pick on him, in my opinion. The comparison to Patrick Mahomes is utterly ridiculous and should be treated as such.
Patrick Mahomes
Total EPA: 98th percentile
Pass EPA: 96th
EPA/Play: 85th
Pass TDs: 93rd
Schedule: 46thJordan Love
Total EPA: 15th percentile
Pass EPA: 19th
EPA/Play: 6th
Pass TDs: 24th
Schedule: 24thI get the point, but these two were on different stratospheres as prospects. https://t.co/RmlBEEyLkF
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) April 19, 2020
3. New England’s quarterback options
I know it’s not a sexy draft story, but the Patriots’ quarterback situation has important implications in the AFC. The team is talented and can still be successful depending on who’s under center. Currently, New England has Jarrett Stidham and Brian Hoyer in the quarterback room. I can’t imagine the Patriots ride with these two.
They need to make a move this weekend, and it could come earlier than the draft. If the Patriots want Andy Dalton, the Bengals would gladly trade him away as they are taking Joe Burrow with the first pick. This trade could happen Thursday or Friday.
The Patriots can win 10 games with Dalton. There are more whispers that if Tagovailoa were to fall in the draft, the Patriots could jump up to grab him. That would be amazing. What if the Lions or Dolphins — both staffs led by former Patriots coaches — did their old boss a solid and agreed to a trade? The Patriots could then draft Tagovailoa or Herbert, and suddenly they have a quarterback of the future.
I think we should keep an eye on the Patriots this week.
4. Saturday’s undrafted free agent frenzy
Near the end of the draft, coaches and scouts organize to call possible undrafted free agents and offer them deals to sign with their team. It’s recruiting, but with money. This job is easier when the staffs are together and you can work through a list. You can discuss the potential players, the money offered, and who’s next if options Nos. 1-3 disappear.
Well, this will now be done remotely. Peter King has more information on this process and it’s worth your time. And last month, I talked to scouts and agents about why the cancellation of pre-draft visits hurts UDFAs. Check it out.
5. Technology issues
Think about your parents and technology. Something you find so easy, like using FaceTime, they can’t figure out. “How does this Twitter machine work again?”
Now imagine if they needed to conduct a draft virtually. It’s the most important event of the season, and it’s what front offices have been planning for over the last months.
On Monday, the NFL tested its capabilities for this process, and it didn’t disappoint:
Text from a participant on the NFL’s mock draft that started at 1 pm EST. “Mock draft today already technical glitch w Cincinnatis 1st pick!!! Brutal.”
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 20, 2020
Text from a GM during this mock draft “there are early communication issues because 32 of us GMs are on conference call and we didn’t hit mute. Sounds awful”
— Dianna Russini (@diannaESPN) April 20, 2020
This is the content I want. This is so predictable and it’s going to happen again Thursday night. The draft will be delayed, someone won’t get their pick in on time, the internet will be down, mute won’t be off, etc.
It’ll be like watching a slow-motion train wreck, and I’m here for it.
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