Dak Prescott is about to get a new contract. The 26-year-old quarterback has exceeded expectations in his four seasons in the NFL, leading the Cowboys to a 40-24 record and a pair of playoff appearances in the aftermath of their 4-12 cratering in 2015. After years of bargain salaries, he’s ready to join the upper tier of the league’s highest-paid players.
The question now is what form that paycheck will take. Dallas has some spending room before hitting 2020’s salary cap but has plenty of free agents to re-sign beyond Prescott, including his No. 1 target, Amari Cooper. The quarterback has reportedly already turned down a contract that would have offered him an average salary of $33 million and more than $100 million guaranteed, though the specifics aren’t publicly available.
That puts Prescott in position to negotiate his way to the richest salary in NFL history if he can surpass Russell Wilson’s annual average of $35 million. He’d just be a placeholder at the top of the list, pending Patrick Mahomes’ sure-to-be eye-popping extension with Kansas City. Still, earning that “highest-paid player” moniker is an honor reserved for the league’s up-and-coming QBs, whether they play up to the title (like Wilson) or not (Joe Flacco).
Prescott could claim his spot at the summit of cash mountain by reaching a deal with the Cowboys. He could delay or possibly derail his ascent if the two sides can’t agree on a contract and Dallas is forced to resort to the franchise tag to keep him rostered. So what are Prescott’s options — and which could be the best-case scenario for him?
The traditional franchise QB deal: 5 years, $170ish million, $130 million guaranteed
The most likely scenario for young starting quarterbacks is a long-term contract with more than 75 percent of that cash guaranteed. Here are recent examples.
- Wilson (2019): four years, $140 million, $107 million guaranteed
Jared Goff (2019): four years, $134 million, $110 million guaranteed
Carson Wentz (2019): four years, $128 million, $107.9 million guaranteed
But those were all contract extensions that added new money to current deals. Prescott would be starting anew, leaving him open to a deal a la Derek Carr’s from 2017 with the Raiders (five years, $125 million, $70.2 million guaranteed).
It would make sense if Prescott were to follow the Goff route, since they were drafted in the same season and because Prescott doesn’t have the same injury concerns Wentz does. The Cowboys then would be looking at tying up about 17 percent of next season’s salary cap with their QB’s average annual salary. Given a 2020 salary cap of a little over $198million, this would look something like: five years, $170-175 million, and roughly $130 million guaranteed.
That’s a lot of money, especially for a former fourth-round pick who has earned, per Spotrac, $4.7 million over the first four years of his career. There’s financial stability there, and it would cement Prescott’s status as a top-end player, as well as Dallas’ belief he’s a franchise quarterback. Any deal Prescott signs this spring will be a windfall. It could also be immediately dwarfed by the free agent contracts that follow in 2021 and 2022 as league revenue swells.
The Kirk Cousins route: 3 years fully guaranteed, $99 million
Prescott may have another plan to cash in. According to reports from the NFL Scouting Combine, he’s considering a shorter contract that allows him to negotiate a new deal in three seasons — when he’s 29 years old and, theoretically, entering his prime as an NFL quarterback.
This could work for Prescott, who bet on himself by turning down owner Jerry Jones’ overtures and rejecting earlier contract extensions. He’s proven himself as a solid center to the Cowboys’ solar system, even when the club around him is unstable. He was asked to throw more than ever in 2019 and responded with a 4,900-yard, 30-touchdown season with an average of 8.2 yards per pass (all career highs by a significant margin).
If he can avoid injury — reasonable, considering he hasn’t missed a start since joining the NFL in 2016 — a deal similar to Kirk Cousins’ fully gu aranteed contract with the Vikings could make sense.
Cousins signed a three-year, $84 million deal to replace Case Keenum in Minnesota back in 2018. Prescott could shoot for even more money in a similar timeframe.
He’s three years younger than Cousins was when he decamped to the NFC North. He’s got more playoff and Pro Bowl appearances than the former Washington quarterback did before switching teams. His career passer rating is more than three points higher than Cousins’ was when he finally hit free agency (97.0 to 93.7).
The Vikings were able to wrangle Cousins for an average of $27 million annually. Prescott could ask for more — perhaps in the $33 million range Dallas had already been floating — and then cash in again three years later.
From 2017 to 2019, the league’s cap rose from $167 to $188.2 million, or a 12.7 percent raise. A similar jump would put the NFL 2023 cap at around $225 million. That projection is also without the new collective bargaining that will shift more money to players, so it’s likely a conservative outlook at the league’s near future.
A three-year deal for Prescott would create an opportunity to cash in with an even bigger contract down the road. When he’d be ready to re-up in 2023, a standard five-year franchise QB contract extension could wind up landing in the market of $200 million total and $150 million guaranteed. That would be on top of the $100-ish million Prescott earns from 2020-22. This is, as the French say, not bad.
That short-term deal would also bring in less guaranteed money than a five-year deal would. If Prescott’s worried about an injury depleting his level of play, that could be money he never gets back. But given his history, consistent play, and ability to roll with the punches in Dallas, this looks like the best possible combination of risk and reward for the young QB.
The “Dallas needs to buy time” move: a 2020 exclusive franchise tag (one year, roughly $33 million)
If Jones can’t commit to either of the first two options, he’s still got a way to keep Prescott in silver and blue. Dallas can place the franchise tag on its quarterback and retain him for 2020.
An exclusive franchise tag would effectively insulate Prescott from other teams, giving the Cowboys until the July 15 deadline to work out a long-term deal. Even if they can’t, he’d be under contract for this coming season and Dallas would have another shot at an extension next offseason.
If Prescott decides to play under the tag and not hold out, he could use another solid season as the launching point for a richer contract in 2021. It would also allow Dallas a full year to see how its new pairing between Prescott and his new head coach — former Packers playcaller Mike McCarthy — looks before making a long-term commitment.
The new CBA could make a franchise tagging a win for Prescott. He’d get a massive raise for this season and then the opportunity to negotiate a new contract against the backdrop of a salary cap that could be $20 million (or more) higher than the 2020 number. A 15 percent cap boost — on the high end of estimates, but not completely unreasonable — could push his baseline salary up from $34 million to something in the $39 million range.
However, that would rely on a strong season, and an injury could wipe out his shot to cash in. Of all the options on the table for Prescott, this is probably the least prosperous one (and riskiest) for the budding quarterback.
Prescott is going to get a big raise in 2020. The question is how long the contract that comes attached to it will be. If he’s willing to bet on himself again, it may make more sense to opt for a lower salary on a shorter contract in hopes of a bigger payday in the near future.
We don’t know what Prescott will land on or how the Cowboys will accommodate him just yet. But while the rising QB may technically be headed for free agency this spring, the odds his paychecks are signed by anyone other than Jones in 2020 are basically zero.
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