Why Baylor men’s basketball really is good enough to win the national championship

Baylor has the most impressive resume in men’s college basketball. The Bears’ active 21-game winning streak is now the second longest ever for a Big 12 team. The streak has featured six wins against teams ranked the top-50 of KenPom’s efficiency standings. It includes a 12-point victory against Kansas in Allen Fieldhouse, which tied the biggest defeat Bill Self has ever taken in that building. Now 11-0 in conference, Baylor’s start is the best for a Big 12 team to open conference play since 2011.

Baylor has a team built to win a national title. With a suffocating ‘no middle’ defense, four incredible guards, unique lineup versatility, and two wildcard pieces that could win them a game in March or April, the Bears are for real. It’s time to jump on the bandwagon.

Following Texas Tech’s run to the national title game last season, Baylor elected to adopt a version of Texas Tech’s ‘no middle’ defense.

The Bears have jumped 71 spots from last season adjusted defensive efficiency. They’re currently ranked No. 4, which is 19 spots and nearly eight points per possession better than any defense in the Scott Drew era.

Baylor’s defense has crushed the best teams they’ve played. The Bears held Kansas to their second lowest points per possession on the season. Despite not starting anyone taller than 6-foot-9, the Bears held Kansas’ giants, Udoka Azubuike and David McCormack, to six points.

tBaylor’s defense has crushed the best teams they’ve played. The Bears held Kansas to their second-lowest points per possession on the season (.89). Despite Baylor not starting anyone taller than 6’9, and nobody else taller than 6’5,

Few defenses have flummoxed nearly all their opponents like Baylor. Auburn transfer Davion Mitchell might be the country’s best defensive guard, as he proves nearly impossible to get past, even as Baylor tries to force action baseline.

And if teams do get into the paint they have to deal with Mark Vital. Baylor ranks top 35 nationally in shots allowed at the rim, and when teams get there, good luck:

With a recognition of Kentucky, Baylor has the deepest backcourt in the country. They start three guards — Jared Butler, MaCio Teague and Mitchell — then bring Devonte Bandoo off the bench.

Few programs would have the luxury of bringing Bandoo off the bench. He is shooting 41 percent from three. And on nights where Baylor’s offense isn’t on, he becomes another weapon. In Stillwater, Oklahoma State started ridiculously hot from the field, and then Bandoo drilled 4-of-6 triples to put away the Cowboys.

Jared Butler has been a monster in the biggest moments. He’s played two games in Allen Fieldhouse and scored 53 points. Marcus Garrett is the best non-Baylor defender in the Big 12, and Butler blew right past him and got him to go under a screen against him:

Mitchell is a monster getting to the hoop. He takes 36 percent of his shots at the rim and converts 64 percent of them, per Hoop-Math. When the game slows down late, his skill getting and scoring at the rim makes Baylor nearly impossible to defend:

Then there’s Teague. He’s scored at least 15 points in Baylor’s last six games. And he’s been KenPom’s game MVP in three-of-five. Teague can score out of different actions and drill threes from way beyond the line:

Drew has played a few different lineups in the last two weeks, and those lineups mean that Baylor is adaptable. The Bears coach has broken the glass on two of his best offensive combinations during Big 12 play.

First, Drew has played Baylor’s four guards with Freddie Gillespie. That lineup generates impressive spacing. Gillespie is one of the country’s best two-point shooters, and Mitchell and Butler are big problems when they run pick-and-rolls. Baylor can then lift a shooter, and the defense is going to leave somebody open:

Second, Drew finally broke out their lineup with Mark Vital at center,surrounded by the four guards (The Fival). Vital sets screens incredibly quickly, so Baylor had him set a couple. The Cowboys couldn’t help off Butler or Bandoo in the corner, and Mitchell is ready to beat one man off the dribble:

The Fival also lets Butler work off the dribble. Baylor ran a lot of wedges up top. Oklahoma State tried to play through those screens, and they tried to switch them. Both of those options failed. Baylor just has too much spacing with the four guards, and then Vital moves so quickly that there isn’t much hope to defend this lineup:

Coming into the season, Clark received a ton of publicity. Andy Katz named him his preseason selection for the Karl Malone Award, which is given to the nation’s top power forward. He was also selected to the All-Big 12 preseason team.

Clark was phenomenal before a knee injury last season. He shot 75 percent from two-point range and was Baylor’s reliable option on the block.

But this season hasn’t been what he hoped. As he’s battled back from the injury, Clark has dealt with swelling. That swelling has limited his explosiveness and his ability to play major minutes.

Clark has still shown flashes, and in the NCAA tournament, Baylor can pick limited spots for Clark to play, depending on health:

Mayer also looms as a one game wildcard. The 6’9 sophomore has improved dramatically in terms of playing within Baylor’s offense and defense. But like Taurean Prince — perhaps the best comparison for him — he’s still a little wild at times as a sophomore.

Maybe neither of those guys can win a game for Baylor in March, but if the Bears get in foul trouble or go cold, they have these two as reliable options. The other elite contenders don’t have a guy like Clark who can flash his best basketball for a few minutes, or a guy like Mayer who is a year away from figuring everything out but still has figured out quite a lot this early.

Baylor is well-positioned to win the national championship. A decade ago, they fell in the regional final in Houston to Duke. Those Bears didn’t quite have enough defensively, as they blew a six point halftime lead. Duke would cut down the nets a week later.

This year the Bears have an overwhelming defense that’s held 8-of-9 Big 12 opponents below one point per possession. Led by the four best guards in America, they’re one of four teams (Kansas, Duke and San Diego State are the others) with a top-25 KenPom offense and defense.

It’s been 72 years since Baylor last played for a national title. Moments like this don’t come along often, but then again, teams like this don’t either.

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